Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Under |
| Money | ALCN +110 SOU -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALCN +4 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | SOU -0.9 (+4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.2 (-9.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -1.7 (+5.7) | 143.2 (-11.2) | 38% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -0.5 (+4.5) | 139.8 (-7.8) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -1.3 (+5.3) | 144.0 (-12.0) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -1.3 (+5.3) | 144.7 (-12.7) | 35% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | ALCN 78 – 73 SOU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SOU 74 – 69 ALCN |
| Feb 3, 2024 | SOU 71 – 70 ALCN |
| Jan 28, 2023 | SOU 80 – 68 ALCN |
| Feb 27, 2021 | SOU 89 – 75 ALCN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALCN | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 12-6 |
| Home | 6-3 | 10-2 |
| Away | 9-13 | 8-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 68.4 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#247) | 0.0 (#162) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.05 (#261) | -0.09 (#183) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.09 (#248) | -0.42 (#205) |
| RPI | 0.473 (#215) | 0.495 (#177) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALCN | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 38.3% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 29.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.69 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.5% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 25.6% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 33.9% |
Game Analysis
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