Betting Lines
| Spread | COLG -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | COLG -450 LAF +340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAF +15 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | COLG -8.0 (-23.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.3 (-0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLG -5.8 (-20.8) | 139.8 (-2.8) | 74% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLG -7.7 (-22.7) | 139.3 (-2.3) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLG -6.0 (-21.0) | 141.2 (-4.2) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | COLG -6.0 (-21.0) | 140.9 (-3.9) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | LAF 70 – 69 COLG |
| Dec 31, 2025 | COLG 85 – 77 LAF |
| Jan 18, 2025 | COLG 90 – 67 LAF |
| Feb 19, 2024 | COLG 67 – 62 LAF |
| Jan 11, 2024 | LAF 69 – 64 COLG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLG | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-4 | 10-6 |
| Away | 4-13 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 69.7 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#224) | -8.4 (#300) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.98 (#255) | -1.64 (#319) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.09 (#242) | -1.91 (#298) |
| RPI | 0.456 (#254) | 0.415 (#322) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLG | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 16.1% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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