Betting Lines
| Spread | COLG -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | LAF +320 COLG -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLG +5 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | COLG -7.1 (+2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.2 (+0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLG -6.9 (+1.9) | 132.8 (-3.8) | 22% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLG -6.2 (+1.2) | 134.3 (-5.3) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLG -6.7 (+1.7) | 134.2 (-5.2) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLG -6.4 (+1.4) | 135.1 (-6.1) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | LAF 70 – 69 COLG |
| Dec 31, 2025 | COLG 85 – 77 LAF |
| Feb 1, 2025 | LAF 76 – 61 COLG |
| Jan 18, 2025 | COLG 90 – 67 LAF |
| Jan 11, 2024 | LAF 69 – 64 COLG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAF | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 16-2 |
| Home | 5-10 | 13-3 |
| Away | 6-9 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.6 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 64.9 |
| Massey | -8.0 (#303) | 2.5 (#132) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.53 (#309) | 0.53 (#131) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.94 (#313) | 0.45 (#142) |
| RPI | 0.455 (#266) | 0.550 (#92) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAF | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 16.3% | 17.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 17.0% |
Game Analysis
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