Betting Lines
| Spread | JAX -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | JAX -390 UNF +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JAX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNF +3 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | JAX -8.8 (-11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.5 (-5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JAX -7.8 (-10.8) | 156.5 (+2.5) | 78% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JAX -7.3 (-10.3) | 158.0 (+1.0) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JAX -8.8 (-11.8) | 156.6 (+2.4) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | JAX -7.3 (-10.3) | 155.8 (+3.2) | 79% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | JAX 85 – 61 UNF |
| Feb 14, 2026 | JAX 63 – 56 UNF |
| Feb 21, 2025 | UNF 77 – 73 JAX |
| Feb 24, 2024 | JAX 62 – 50 UNF |
| Jan 13, 2024 | UNF 82 – 74 JAX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JAX | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-3 | 8-6 |
| Away | 7-9 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 85.7 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#165) | -5.4 (#251) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.30 (#149) | -0.48 (#213) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#130) | -0.71 (#219) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#141) | 0.476 (#215) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JAX | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 35.1% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 17.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 65.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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