Betting Lines
| Spread | UNF -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | JAX -111 UNF -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JAX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JAX +12 | 112 | Won |
| Massey | UNF -0.6 (+12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.0 (-33.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNF -0.2 (+12.2) | 143.7 (-31.7) | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JAX -0.2 (+11.8) | 144.7 (-32.7) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JAX -0.1 (+11.9) | 142.6 (-30.6) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNF -0.2 (+12.2) | 142.5 (-30.5) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | JAX 85 – 61 UNF |
| Feb 14, 2026 | JAX 63 – 56 UNF |
| Feb 21, 2025 | UNF 77 – 73 JAX |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UNF 81 – 78 JAX |
| Jan 13, 2024 | UNF 82 – 74 JAX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JAX | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 9-7 |
| Home | 11-3 | 11-5 |
| Away | 4-14 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 77.7 |
| Massey | -8.3 (#306) | -4.3 (#251) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.93 (#269) | -0.50 (#221) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.12 (#265) | -0.53 (#218) |
| RPI | 0.453 (#269) | 0.463 (#256) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JAX | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 24.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.8% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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