Betting Lines
| Spread | UNF -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | UNF -250 JAX +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNF +8 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | UNF -7.2 (+0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.2 (+5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNF -4.5 (+3.5) | 147.1 (+8.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNF -4.1 (+3.9) | 147.0 (+9.0) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNF -4.2 (+3.8) | 146.7 (+9.3) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNF -4.2 (+3.8) | 147.8 (+8.2) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | JAX 85 – 61 UNF |
| Feb 14, 2026 | JAX 63 – 56 UNF |
| Feb 21, 2025 | UNF 77 – 73 JAX |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UNF 81 – 78 JAX |
| Feb 24, 2024 | JAX 62 – 50 UNF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNF | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 5-11 |
| Home | 11-5 | 11-3 |
| Away | 5-11 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 74.6 |
| Massey | -6.6 (#284) | -9.8 (#318) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.26 (#288) | -0.91 (#259) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.43 (#286) | -1.18 (#263) |
| RPI | 0.434 (#288) | 0.454 (#254) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNF | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.3% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 64.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 29.8% |
Game Analysis
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