Blood in the streets in the town of New Haven "Peace Frog" - The Doors
Atlantic Sun Conference · UNF Arena · January 13, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread UNF -5.5 Home covered
O/U 144.5 Over
Money UNF -250 / JAX +188
Model Predictions
Spread Total UNF win
Actual UNF +8 156 Won
Massey UNF -7.2 (+0.8)
Massey Totals 150.2 (+5.8)
Bradley-Terry 60%
Weighted B-T 64%
Efficiency Plus ML UNF -4.1 (+3.9) 147.0 (+9.0) 66%
Baseline Tuned ML UNF -4.2 (+3.8) 146.7 (+9.3) 68%
Baseline ML UNF -4.2 (+3.8) 147.8 (+8.2) 67%
Baseline Plus ML UNF -4.5 (+3.5) 147.1 (+8.9) 71%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 28, 2026 JAX 8561 UNF
Feb 14, 2026 JAX 6356 UNF
Feb 21, 2025 UNF 7773 JAX
Feb 1, 2025 UNF 8178 JAX
Feb 24, 2024 JAX 6250 UNF

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UNF JAX
Overall 16-16 16-17
Conference 9-7 5-11
Home 11-5 11-3
Away 5-11 4-14
Neutral 0-0 1-0
Last 5 1-4 1-4
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 75.6 69.6
Avg Pts Against 77.7 74.6
Massey -6.6 (#284) -9.8 (#318)
Bradley-Terry -1.26 (#288) -0.91 (#259)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.43 (#286) -1.18 (#263)
RPI 0.434 (#288) 0.454 (#254)
Shooting & Four Factors UNF JAX
FG% 40.2% 43.4%
3PT% 34.7% 32.4%
REB / G 32.4 33.2
OREB / G 9.0 10.1
AST / TO 1.02 0.67
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.0% 48.8%
TOV% 17.0% 21.2%
ORB% 24.3% 30.0%
FT Rate 18.3% 27.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.7% 52.2%
Opp TOV% 15.4% 17.9%
DRB% 69.8% 64.5%
Opp FT Rate 28.1% 29.8%

Game Analysis

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