Betting Lines
| Spread | JAX -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | JAX -325 UNF +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JAX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JAX +7 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | JAX -6.6 (+0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.9 (-39.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JAX -5.2 (+1.8) | 148.2 (-29.2) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JAX -5.2 (+1.8) | 152.0 (-33.0) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JAX -5.0 (+2.0) | 148.7 (-29.7) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JAX -5.2 (+1.8) | 148.5 (-29.5) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | JAX 85 – 61 UNF |
| Feb 21, 2025 | UNF 77 – 73 JAX |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UNF 81 – 78 JAX |
| Feb 24, 2024 | JAX 62 – 50 UNF |
| Jan 13, 2024 | UNF 82 – 74 JAX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JAX | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 5-13 |
| Home | 8-4 | 5-8 |
| Away | 3-14 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 89.6 |
| Massey | -9.7 (#304) | -13.3 (#340) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.54 (#301) | -2.30 (#344) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.04 (#306) | -2.89 (#342) |
| RPI | 0.443 (#283) | 0.422 (#317) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JAX | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.2% | 57.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 12.2% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 62.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.5% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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