Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Under |
| Money | ALA -1600 UGA +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +21 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -10.6 (+10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.3 (-2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -11.1 (+9.9) | 155.6 (+3.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -10.2 (+10.8) | 157.5 (+1.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -10.2 (+10.8) | 156.0 (+3.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -10.3 (+10.7) | 156.6 (+2.4) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | UGA 98 – 88 ALA |
| Jan 31, 2024 | ALA 85 – 76 UGA |
| Feb 18, 2023 | ALA 108 – 59 UGA |
| Jan 25, 2022 | UGA 82 – 76 ALA |
| Mar 6, 2021 | ALA 89 – 79 UGA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | UGA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-3 | 15-3 |
| Away | 9-3 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 90.7 | 75.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.3 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 21.4 (#5) | 14.0 (#34) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.27 (#2) | 2.72 (#25) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.29 (#4) | 3.74 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.706 (#2) | 0.605 (#32) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | UGA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 44.4 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 14.2 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 36.9% | 37.7% |
| FT Rate | 30.0% | 29.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 44.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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