Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 179.5 Over |
| Money | UGA +105 ALA -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UGA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UGA +10 | 186 | Won |
| Massey | UGA -0.3 (+9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 187.1 (-1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UGA -0.2 (+9.8) | 179.7 (+6.3) | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UGA -1.6 (+8.4) | 187.7 (-1.7) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UGA -1.7 (+8.3) | 180.1 (+5.9) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UGA -1.1 (+8.9) | 184.8 (+1.2) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2025 | ALA 90 – 69 UGA |
| Jan 31, 2024 | ALA 85 – 76 UGA |
| Feb 18, 2023 | ALA 108 – 59 UGA |
| Jan 25, 2022 | UGA 82 – 76 ALA |
| Mar 6, 2021 | ALA 89 – 79 UGA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UGA | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-4 | 12-3 |
| Away | 6-4 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 89.4 | 91.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.8 | 82.7 |
| Massey | 17.2 (#25) | 19.9 (#14) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.30 (#37) | 3.37 (#16) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.20 (#33) | 4.19 (#17) |
| RPI | 0.572 (#55) | 0.643 (#10) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UGA | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 41.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 13.3% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 28.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 12.3% |
| DRB% | 64.3% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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