Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | ALA -4000 UGA +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +49 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -21.7 (+27.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.9 (+15.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -19.2 (+29.8) | 155.8 (+11.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -17.9 (+31.1) | 154.9 (+12.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -18.7 (+30.3) | 154.8 (+12.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -18.9 (+30.1) | 153.3 (+13.7) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | UGA 98 – 88 ALA |
| Feb 1, 2025 | ALA 90 – 69 UGA |
| Jan 31, 2024 | ALA 85 – 76 UGA |
| Jan 25, 2022 | UGA 82 – 76 ALA |
| Mar 6, 2021 | ALA 89 – 79 UGA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | UGA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-6 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 6-12 |
| Home | 15-0 | 13-4 |
| Away | 9-3 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.8 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 20.7 (#2) | 2.6 (#128) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.49 (#2) | 0.96 (#94) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.05 (#3) | 1.30 (#88) |
| RPI | 0.673 (#1) | 0.522 (#138) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | UGA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 44.4 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 28.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.2% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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