Betting Lines
| Spread | WAKE -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | WAKE -150 PITT +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAKE +2 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | PITT -5.0 (+7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.2 (+11.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -1.3 (+3.3) | 135.9 (+14.1) | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PITT -1.7 (+3.7) | 138.4 (+11.6) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -1.8 (+3.8) | 138.1 (+11.9) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -1.4 (+3.4) | 136.4 (+13.6) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 27, 2026 | PITT 80 – 76 WAKE |
| Mar 14, 2024 | PITT 81 – 69 WAKE |
| Feb 21, 2024 | WAKE 91 – 58 PITT |
| Feb 1, 2024 | PITT 77 – 72 WAKE |
| Jan 26, 2023 | PITT 81 – 79 WAKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAKE | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 8-12 |
| Home | 13-3 | 13-4 |
| Away | 6-6 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#86) | 14.8 (#31) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.40 (#38) | 2.36 (#39) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.80 (#43) | 2.83 (#41) |
| RPI | 0.576 (#54) | 0.606 (#31) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAKE | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 28.2% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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