Betting Lines
| Spread | PITT -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | PITT -112 WAKE -108 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +4 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | WAKE -1.4 (+5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.4 (+8.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAKE -0.4 (+4.4) | 144.2 (+11.8) | 50% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PITT -0.3 (+3.7) | 143.8 (+12.2) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAKE -0.2 (+4.2) | 146.6 (+9.4) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WAKE -0.4 (+4.4) | 145.8 (+10.2) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2025 | WAKE 76 – 74 PITT |
| Mar 14, 2024 | PITT 81 – 69 WAKE |
| Feb 21, 2024 | WAKE 91 – 58 PITT |
| Feb 1, 2024 | PITT 77 – 72 WAKE |
| Jan 26, 2023 | PITT 81 – 79 WAKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 18-17 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 7-11 |
| Home | 8-10 | 13-7 |
| Away | 3-8 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 76.9 |
| Massey | 5.3 (#100) | 9.9 (#62) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.01 (#169) | 1.39 (#74) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#146) | 1.64 (#79) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#190) | 0.565 (#69) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 65.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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