Betting Lines
| Spread | WAKE -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | PITT +110 WAKE -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +12 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | WAKE -0.9 (+12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.4 (+4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -0.5 (+11.5) | 142.9 (+7.1) | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PITT -1.0 (+11.0) | 141.2 (+8.8) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -0.2 (+11.8) | 143.6 (+6.4) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -0.4 (+11.6) | 144.4 (+5.6) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 27, 2026 | PITT 80 – 76 WAKE |
| Feb 1, 2025 | WAKE 76 – 74 PITT |
| Feb 21, 2024 | WAKE 91 – 58 PITT |
| Feb 1, 2024 | PITT 77 – 72 WAKE |
| Jan 26, 2023 | PITT 81 – 79 WAKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 11-9 |
| Home | 13-5 | 17-2 |
| Away | 7-4 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 78.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 12.0 (#40) | 12.9 (#30) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.76 (#49) | 1.63 (#59) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.16 (#52) | 2.28 (#48) |
| RPI | 0.548 (#92) | 0.552 (#81) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 76.5% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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