Betting Lines
| Spread | PITT -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | PITT -167 WAKE +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +2 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | PITT -4.5 (-2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.9 (+9.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -3.0 (-1.0) | 148.7 (+11.3) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PITT -2.4 (-0.4) | 147.1 (+12.9) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -3.1 (-1.1) | 150.2 (+9.8) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -3.0 (-1.0) | 151.5 (+8.5) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 27, 2026 | PITT 80 – 76 WAKE |
| Feb 1, 2025 | WAKE 76 – 74 PITT |
| Mar 14, 2024 | PITT 81 – 69 WAKE |
| Feb 21, 2024 | WAKE 91 – 58 PITT |
| Feb 1, 2024 | PITT 77 – 72 WAKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 10-10 |
| Home | 14-3 | 13-3 |
| Away | 7-5 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 73.8 |
| Massey | 7.5 (#76) | 6.6 (#82) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.46 (#62) | 1.88 (#43) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.92 (#60) | 2.35 (#44) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#75) | 0.580 (#51) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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