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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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86–40 on winners spread MAE 7.8 126 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Marist @ Niagara +1.5 136.5 56% 62–67 ✓
Iona @ Siena -11.0 135.6 16% 70–51 ✓
Manhattan @ Canisius +12.6 142.8 87% 70–82 ✓
Michigan State @ Wisconsin +3.7 138.0 63% 66–81 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ St. Bonaventure +3.1 141.0 61% 72–91 ✓
Utah Valley @ Seattle U +9.0 136.4 79% 61–62 ✓
Stanford @ California +1.6 160.2 56% 71–73 ✓
Kansas State @ Houston +20.1 125.0 97% 52–74 ✓
Boston College @ Notre Dame -2.7 135.0 40% 61–58 ✓
Virginia @ Louisville -7.4 127.8 25% 69–52 ✓
William & Mary @ Northeastern +9.6 145.7 81% 72–68 ✗
Nebraska @ Maryland +1.2 137.1 54% 51–73 ✓
Lehigh @ Holy Cross -5.9 147.4 30% 78–72 ✓
Georgia @ Florida +8.8 161.1 79% 98–102 ✓
UAlbany @ New Hampshire +7.0 161.6 74% 86–79 ✗
Georgetown @ Providence +14.9 143.0 91% 76–84 ✓
Fordham @ Duquesne +10.4 144.2 83% 59–68 ✓
Seton Hall @ Marquette +9.6 146.1 81% 57–75 ✓
Missouri @ South Carolina +8.5 135.1 78% 64–72 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Navy +10.2 131.5 82% 74–70 ✗
Bucknell @ Army +0.5 124.1 52% 66–56 ✗
Wagner @ Central Connecticut +8.4 125.2 78% 68–69 ✓
Akron @ Miami (OH) -6.6 139.7 27% 68–70 ✗
Central Michigan @ Western Michigan +5.7 143.2 70% 62–55 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Green Bay +17.2 133.3 94% 64–78 ✓
Kansas @ Iowa State +9.3 146.0 80% 75–79 ✓
North Carolina @ Florida State -7.3 153.0 25% 75–68 ✓
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma +3.4 140.6 62% 85–84 ✗
Texas @ BYU +12.7 149.1 88% 72–84 ✓
West Virginia @ Oklahoma State +5.8 141.5 70% 66–70 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Murray State -0.1 135.9 50% 60–58 ✓
Illinois State @ Evansville +3.6 135.9 63% 54–58 ✓
Towson @ Delaware +4.6 132.8 66% 67–56 ✗
North Carolina A&T @ Drexel +19.7 143.6 96% 47–62 ✓
Hofstra @ Monmouth +0.4 140.6 51% 78–81 ✓
Elon @ Hampton -2.2 160.9 42% 80–74 ✓
Charleston @ Campbell -7.8 144.4 24% 90–67 ✓
Boston University @ Lafayette +4.5 122.5 66% 62–48 ✗
Lipscomb @ Stetson -1.6 157.0 44% 59–80 ✗
Long Island University @ Le Moyne +11.5 144.9 85% 74–87 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Fairleigh Dickinson -0.2 156.0 49% 91–93 ✗
Pennsylvania @ Columbia +2.1 149.5 58% 81–84 ✓
Bowling Green @ Toledo +8.2 154.9 77% 72–88 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Ball State +5.2 153.4 68% 71–81 ✓
The Citadel @ Chattanooga +7.0 138.1 74% 62–90 ✓
Princeton @ Cornell -3.1 161.0 39% 68–83 ✗
Yale @ Harvard -3.2 143.4 39% 78–65 ✓
Georgia State @ Coastal Carolina -3.8 152.2 36% 83–85 ✗
Binghamton @ Maine +8.8 139.2 79% 51–50 ✗
Nicholls @ East Texas A&M -0.7 139.9 47% 87–84 ✓
Brown @ Dartmouth -4.5 129.4 34% 71–75 ✗
Pittsburgh @ Miami +3.6 148.5 63% 68–72 ✓
Indiana @ Illinois +16.5 155.7 93% 62–70 ✓
Villanova @ Butler +1.6 146.4 56% 81–88 ✓
Grand Canyon @ UT Arlington -6.7 150.0 27% 67–61 ✓
California Baptist @ Stephen F. Austin +5.1 134.4 68% 81–79 ✗
New Mexico State @ Louisiana Tech +16.3 135.8 93% 53–73 ✓
Auburn @ Mississippi State -3.6 143.5 37% 58–64 ✗
Alabama A&M @ Texas Southern +10.6 137.7 83% 69–85 ✓
Buffalo @ Eastern Michigan +4.2 139.6 65% 65–75 ✓
Western Illinois @ Morehead State +10.7 131.1 83% 50–64 ✓
Clemson @ Duke +6.7 154.3 73% 71–72 ✓
TCU @ Baylor +8.0 158.4 77% 105–102 ✗
Utah State @ Boise State +0.9 144.1 53% 90–84 ✗
Colorado State @ Wyoming -10.3 147.4 17% 76–79 ✗
Charlotte @ Tulane +3.0 152.7 61% 75–71 ✗
UTSA @ South Florida +12.9 162.0 88% 72–89 ✓
Missouri State @ Valparaiso -2.3 137.1 42% 81–70 ✓
High Point @ Winthrop +2.2 158.1 58% 83–81 ✗
South Carolina Upstate @ Gardner-Webb +10.2 145.9 82% 70–75 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Stony Brook -4.2 147.4 35% 78–86 ✗
Colgate @ American University -1.0 136.7 46% 73–54 ✓
Rhode Island @ George Mason +11.4 140.8 85% 84–92 ✓
Coppin State @ Norfolk State +18.0 125.8 95% 58–68 ✓
Merrimack @ Saint Francis -9.6 127.6 19% 74–55 ✓
Samford @ East Tennessee State -5.7 160.2 30% 75–72 ✓
Oakland @ Milwaukee -2.7 159.7 40% 91–87 ✓
Southern Miss @ Marshall +4.2 143.9 65% 67–83 ✓
Vermont @ Bryant +1.1 143.6 54% 67–57 ✗
Omaha @ Denver +7.8 165.1 76% 91–72 ✗
Jacksonville @ Bellarmine +3.3 139.7 62% 63–69 ✓
Jackson State @ Bethune-Cookman -2.4 150.7 42% 71–82 ✗
North Florida @ Eastern Kentucky +5.2 148.4 68% 76–89 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Central Arkansas -7.0 167.1 26% 87–92 ✗
Southern Utah @ Abilene Christian +4.4 159.4 65% 82–67 ✗
Long Beach State @ UC Riverside +0.1 152.7 50% 65–53 ✗
Northern Arizona @ Eastern Washington +16.9 148.0 94% 70–85 ✓
Alcorn State @ Florida A&M +0.8 152.7 53% 76–67 ✗
Howard @ Morgan State -7.3 160.1 25% 79–85 ✗
Presbyterian @ Radford +8.8 142.9 79% 58–73 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ SIU Edwardsville +9.4 130.7 80% 57–74 ✓
Lindenwood @ UT Martin +15.0 156.0 91% 67–76 ✓
Tennessee State @ Eastern Illinois -0.4 139.1 49% 64–60 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Northwestern State -6.9 143.0 26% 79–68 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Little Rock +14.9 156.5 91% 61–66 ✓
Colorado @ Washington State +1.7 146.1 56% 69–78 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Grambling +19.0 125.4 96% 46–54 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Virginia Tech +10.6 146.6 83% 67–91 ✓
UIC @ Belmont +4.1 149.7 65% 65–74 ✓
Iowa @ Michigan -0.5 169.5 48% 88–78 ✓
Rider @ Mount St. Mary's +7.0 148.4 74% 66–62 ✗
VMI @ Western Carolina +22.9 146.8 98% 77–102 ✓
New Orleans @ McNeese +23.1 149.7 98% 65–102 ✓
Utah Tech @ Tarleton State +8.6 139.1 78% 68–86 ✓
Liberty @ Jacksonville State -2.3 126.9 42% 62–73 ✗
UC San Diego @ UC Davis +1.9 137.5 57% 92–59 ✗
Northern Colorado @ Idaho -5.4 157.6 31% 89–68 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Maryland Eastern Shore -5.7 136.6 30% 65–57 ✓
Arizona @ Oregon -8.0 162.1 23% 87–78 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Charleston Southern -7.2 146.4 26% 71–65 ✓
UTEP @ Sam Houston +4.4 141.5 66% 56–60 ✓
South Alabama @ Troy +11.6 155.0 86% 79–83 ✓
South Carolina State @ Delaware State +6.8 149.7 73% 66–64 ✗
Tennessee @ Vanderbilt -17.8 138.0 5% 75–62 ✓
Kentucky @ Arkansas -8.0 171.5 23% 63–57 ✓
Dayton @ Richmond -2.6 133.0 41% 64–69 ✗
Bradley @ Indiana State +7.9 155.6 76% 86–95 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Drake +9.2 146.2 80% 63–77 ✓
La Salle @ George Washington +8.7 162.8 79% 80–70 ✗
Furman @ Wofford -2.2 164.4 42% 67–77 ✗
James Madison @ App State +2.7 146.3 60% 76–82 ✓
Houston Christian @ Incarnate Word +5.3 152.5 68% 75–79 ✓
Florida International @ Middle Tennessee +0.6 136.6 52% 61–79 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Southern +14.2 167.5 90% 66–80 ✓
Minnesota @ Penn State +1.9 149.3 57% 83–74 ✗
Alabama State @ Prairie View A&M +1.7 135.0 56% 74–67 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.