← All models
Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
28–20 on winners
spread MAE 10.6
48 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DePaul
@
Creighton
|
+26.8 | 144.9 | 99% | 62–85 | ✓ |
Arizona State
@
Oregon State
|
-0.6 | 137.8 | 48% | 71–84 | ✗ |
NC State
@
Syracuse
|
+2.8 | 147.9 | 60% | 65–77 | ✓ |
UCF
@
Cincinnati
|
+7.8 | 136.7 | 76% | 57–68 | ✓ |
Air Force
@
Fresno State
|
+1.1 | 131.3 | 54% | 70–84 | ✓ |
Mercer
@
UNC Greensboro
|
+10.4 | 135.0 | 83% | 70–64 | ✗ |
Georgia Southern
@
Old Dominion
|
+7.2 | 151.6 | 74% | 76–70 | ✗ |
NJIT
@
UMBC
|
+6.9 | 157.1 | 74% | 75–74 | ✗ |
SE Louisiana
@
Lamar
|
+7.9 | 144.3 | 76% | 64–74 | ✓ |
Queens University
@
North Alabama
|
+7.7 | 164.4 | 76% | 84–90 | ✓ |
Austin Peay
@
Florida Gulf Coast
|
-0.4 | 133.6 | 49% | 67–73 | ✗ |
Montana State
@
Portland State
|
+4.4 | 139.4 | 66% | 91–94 | ✓ |
UCLA
@
USC
|
+7.2 | 135.1 | 74% | 65–50 | ✗ |
Tulsa
@
Rice
|
+0.4 | 146.2 | 52% | 85–83 | ✗ |
LSU
@
Alabama
|
+18.4 | 164.7 | 95% | 88–109 | ✓ |
Massachusetts
@
Saint Louis
|
-7.2 | 159.7 | 26% | 84–73 | ✓ |
VCU
@
Davidson
|
+1.0 | 135.0 | 54% | 63–58 | ✗ |
San Francisco
@
Portland
|
-15.8 | 149.2 | 8% | 76–64 | ✓ |
San Diego
@
Pepperdine
|
+4.5 | 149.9 | 66% | 69–67 | ✗ |
South Dakota
@
Kansas City
|
+6.2 | 153.0 | 71% | 57–81 | ✓ |
South Dakota State
@
Oral Roberts
|
-0.3 | 155.4 | 49% | 82–87 | ✗ |
North Dakota
@
St. Thomas-Minnesota
|
+12.5 | 135.3 | 87% | 74–64 | ✗ |
Ole Miss
@
Texas A&M
|
+6.7 | 141.9 | 73% | 71–68 | ✗ |
Ohio State
@
Northwestern
|
+1.1 | 140.0 | 54% | 58–83 | ✓ |
UNLV
@
San José State
|
-2.1 | 148.9 | 43% | 77–65 | ✓ |
Cal State Bakersfield
@
Cal State Fullerton
|
+3.9 | 128.8 | 64% | 50–68 | ✓ |
Montana
@
Sacramento State
|
-7.4 | 140.2 | 25% | 70–67 | ✓ |
Idaho State
@
Weber State
|
+13.8 | 135.3 | 89% | 74–64 | ✗ |
Utah
@
Washington
|
-2.4 | 161.4 | 41% | 73–98 | ✗ |
Loyola Marymount
@
Saint Mary's
|
+16.3 | 127.0 | 93% | 65–70 | ✓ |
Gonzaga
@
Pacific
|
-28.4 | 150.1 | 0% | 82–73 | ✓ |
Cal State Northridge
@
UC Irvine
|
+16.9 | 146.2 | 94% | 72–77 | ✓ |
Cal Poly
@
Hawai'i
|
+13.0 | 126.4 | 88% | 73–83 | ✓ |
Xavier
@
UConn
|
+9.1 | 147.2 | 80% | 56–99 | ✓ |
Wright State
@
IU Indianapolis
|
-15.6 | 162.8 | 8% | 83–76 | ✓ |
Purdue
@
Rutgers
|
-13.9 | 140.3 | 10% | 68–60 | ✓ |
North Texas
@
Florida Atlantic
|
+7.7 | 135.1 | 76% | 63–66 | ✓ |
Marist
@
Canisius
|
+3.8 | 129.1 | 63% | 80–71 | ✗ |
Robert Morris
@
Cleveland State
|
+7.8 | 156.4 | 76% | 64–66 | ✓ |
Texas State
@
Louisiana
|
+10.3 | 137.9 | 83% | 46–66 | ✓ |
Northern Kentucky
@
Youngstown State
|
+8.0 | 146.1 | 77% | 52–82 | ✓ |
Saint Peter's
@
Siena
|
-10.3 | 120.7 | 18% | 63–52 | ✓ |
Manhattan
@
Niagara
|
+10.5 | 151.6 | 83% | 84–78 | ✗ |
Quinnipiac
@
Fairfield
|
+5.0 | 155.6 | 68% | 66–64 | ✗ |
Arkansas State
@
UL Monroe
|
-5.5 | 145.9 | 31% | 82–85 | ✗ |
SMU
@
Wichita State
|
-9.2 | 141.7 | 20% | 72–77 | ✗ |
Memphis
@
UAB
|
-5.1 | 160.8 | 32% | 88–97 | ✗ |
Temple
@
East Carolina
|
+6.1 | 138.1 | 71% | 64–70 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.