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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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39–15 on winners spread MAE 9.0 54 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
SMU @ North Texas	-1.2	122.9	46%	66–68	✗
William & Mary @ Hofstra	+15.5	147.1	92%	55–64	✓
UNC Wilmington @ Northeastern	-1.9	147.9	43%	77–54	✓
North Carolina A&T @ Delaware	+17.3	153.1	94%	71–90	✓
Drexel @ Towson	-1.1	121.5	46%	67–70	✗
Charleston @ Hampton	-13.7	160.4	11%	107–86	✓
Rider @ Saint Peter's	+10.6	131.7	83%	62–57	✗
Lipscomb @ Florida Gulf Coast	-1.8	145.7	44%	98–72	✓
Merrimack @ Wagner	-1.2	119.3	46%	60–44	✓
Stonehill @ Long Island University	+3.7	140.7	63%	60–63	✓
Sacred Heart @ Saint Francis	-5.3	139.3	31%	71–75	✗
Youngstown State @ IU Indianapolis	-16.0	144.2	7%	78–50	✓
Wright State @ Cleveland State	+1.8	168.5	56%	107–99	✗
Oakland @ Green Bay	-0.6	137.9	48%	59–69	✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Northern Kentucky	+2.5	155.3	59%	63–58	✗
Bryant @ NJIT	-9.1	149.1	21%	70–55	✓
Binghamton @ New Hampshire	+12.1	153.5	86%	73–79	✓
Kansas City @ South Dakota State	+11.7	151.3	86%	66–75	✓
Jacksonville @ Eastern Kentucky	+9.9	151.1	82%	59–75	✓
Austin Peay @ Stetson	+3.1	139.4	61%	82–83	✓
UTEP @ Louisiana Tech	+13.7	134.7	89%	54–68	✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Quinnipiac	+5.8	153.8	70%	65–79	✓
Lindenwood @ Little Rock	+12.8	155.4	88%	66–80	✓
Grand Canyon @ Stephen F. Austin	-3.5	149.9	37%	53–51	✓
California Baptist @ UT Rio Grande Valley	-5.0	144.8	32%	63–54	✓
Detroit Mercy @ Milwaukee	+15.7	155.5	92%	71–87	✓
Omaha @ Oral Roberts	+4.3	152.6	65%	67–74	✓
North Dakota State @ St. Thomas-Minnesota	+10.3	140.4	83%	66–79	✓
Southern Utah @ Tarleton State	+6.6	148.2	73%	73–70	✗
Florida International @ Western Kentucky	+10.0	156.5	82%	91–105	✓
Southeast Missouri State @ UT Martin	+15.8	159.2	92%	58–84	✓
Tennessee Tech @ Eastern Illinois	+6.9	134.9	74%	59–68	✓
South Alabama @ UL Monroe	-1.7	143.7	44%	66–80	✗
Utah Tech @ Abilene Christian	+5.9	149.1	70%	60–82	✓
Arizona State @ Oregon	+8.7	143.9	79%	61–80	✓
San Francisco @ Gonzaga	+7.5	146.2	75%	72–77	✓
Western Illinois @ Southern Indiana	-3.0	129.2	39%	73–68	✓
South Dakota @ Denver	+14.9	167.3	91%	110–111	✓
New Mexico State @ Sam Houston	+6.9	143.8	73%	67–79	✓
Montana State @ Sacramento State	-0.2	136.8	49%	70–62	✓
Northern Arizona @ Idaho	+5.5	137.4	69%	75–60	✗
Northern Colorado @ Eastern Washington	+9.4	170.9	80%	74–77	✓
Pepperdine @ Santa Clara	+9.8	147.8	81%	71–94	✓
Portland @ Loyola Marymount	+11.9	148.3	86%	65–92	✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Cal State Northridge	+6.8	147.1	73%	64–56	✗
Cal State Fullerton @ Cal Poly	-3.9	128.6	36%	54–51	✓
UC Irvine @ Long Beach State	-5.5	153.7	31%	72–61	✓
UC Riverside @ UC San Diego	+11.8	137.6	86%	65–66	✓
Montana @ Portland State	-6.4	146.4	28%	46–72	✗
Arizona @ Oregon State	-21.0	155.0	3%	80–83	✗
Pacific @ Saint Mary's	+32.0	132.9	100%	28–76	✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Hawai'i	+3.5	138.4	63%	78–61	✗
Arkansas State @ Louisiana	+6.3	153.8	72%	75–81	✓
Ohio @ Kent State	+4.6	157.1	66%	71–64	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.