Betting Lines
| Spread | HAW -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | HAW -178 UCSB +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +17 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | HAW -3.9 (-20.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.3 (+0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAW -2.3 (-19.3) | 136.4 (+2.6) | 59% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAW -2.3 (-19.3) | 134.6 (+4.4) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAW -1.3 (-18.3) | 134.9 (+4.1) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HAW -1.7 (-18.7) | 136.5 (+2.5) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | HAW 78 – 75 UCSB |
| Jan 18, 2026 | UCSB 77 – 62 HAW |
| Feb 9, 2025 | UCSB 76 – 72 HAW |
| Jan 3, 2025 | UCSB 64 – 61 HAW |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UCSB 77 – 71 HAW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAW | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 9-11 |
| Home | 13-6 | 9-7 |
| Away | 4-6 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 73.3 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#167) | -0.3 (#172) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#209) | -0.06 (#179) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.29 (#200) | -0.04 (#173) |
| RPI | 0.467 (#236) | 0.489 (#192) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAW | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 49.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 38.7% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 28.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 13.6% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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