Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Over |
| Money | UCSB -145 HAW +122 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +6 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | UCSB -2.3 (+3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (+5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -0.6 (+5.4) | 141.0 (+7.0) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -0.6 (+5.4) | 139.1 (+8.9) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -1.0 (+5.0) | 140.7 (+7.3) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -0.5 (+5.5) | 141.3 (+6.7) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | HAW 78 – 75 UCSB |
| Jan 18, 2026 | UCSB 77 – 62 HAW |
| Feb 9, 2025 | UCSB 76 – 72 HAW |
| Jan 3, 2025 | UCSB 64 – 61 HAW |
| Jan 26, 2024 | UCSB 78 – 61 HAW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSB | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 11-9 |
| Home | 9-7 | 13-6 |
| Away | 6-7 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 69.3 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#177) | 0.3 (#157) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#199) | -0.09 (#177) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.26 (#193) | -0.05 (#174) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#211) | 0.481 (#210) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSB | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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