Betting Lines
| Spread | HAW -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | UCSB +120 HAW -142 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +15 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | HAW -5.9 (+20.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (-4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAW -2.9 (+17.9) | 139.5 (-0.5) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAW -5.5 (+20.5) | 139.6 (-0.6) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HAW -4.6 (+19.6) | 141.1 (-2.1) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAW -5.2 (+20.2) | 140.7 (-1.7) | 32% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | HAW 78 – 75 UCSB |
| Feb 9, 2025 | UCSB 76 – 72 HAW |
| Jan 3, 2025 | UCSB 64 – 61 HAW |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UCSB 77 – 71 HAW |
| Jan 26, 2024 | UCSB 78 – 61 HAW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSB | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 14-6 |
| Home | 11-4 | 16-3 |
| Away | 5-8 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 78.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#192) | 7.7 (#85) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#180) | 0.96 (#96) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.24 (#192) | 1.28 (#95) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#195) | 0.517 (#140) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSB | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 31.1% | 30.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 43.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.4% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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