Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | UCSB -240 HAW +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +4 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | UCSB -6.3 (-2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.6 (+11.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -5.2 (-1.2) | 136.0 (+12.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -3.4 (+0.6) | 136.2 (+11.8) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -5.2 (-1.2) | 138.1 (+9.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -5.0 (-1.0) | 138.9 (+9.1) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | HAW 78 – 75 UCSB |
| Jan 18, 2026 | UCSB 77 – 62 HAW |
| Jan 3, 2025 | UCSB 64 – 61 HAW |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UCSB 77 – 71 HAW |
| Jan 26, 2024 | UCSB 78 – 61 HAW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSB | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 7-13 |
| Home | 12-5 | 13-7 |
| Away | 7-7 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#138) | -1.5 (#187) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#152) | -0.10 (#180) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.07 (#168) | -0.25 (#188) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#226) | 0.486 (#203) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSB | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 39.7% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 30.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 13.5% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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