Betting Lines
| Spread | HAW -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | HAW -218 UCSB +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAW +3 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | HAW -6.2 (-3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.2 (+5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAW -5.1 (-2.1) | 148.4 (+4.6) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAW -3.4 (-0.4) | 144.9 (+8.1) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAW -5.3 (-2.3) | 145.5 (+7.5) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HAW -5.3 (-2.3) | 146.8 (+6.2) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 18, 2026 | UCSB 77 – 62 HAW |
| Feb 9, 2025 | UCSB 76 – 72 HAW |
| Jan 3, 2025 | UCSB 64 – 61 HAW |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UCSB 77 – 71 HAW |
| Jan 26, 2024 | UCSB 78 – 61 HAW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAW | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 11-9 |
| Home | 16-3 | 11-4 |
| Away | 6-5 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.7 | 76.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 73.7 |
| Massey | 4.8 (#105) | 1.6 (#138) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#107) | 0.21 (#150) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#123) | 0.31 (#143) |
| RPI | 0.511 (#154) | 0.513 (#148) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAW | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 38.2% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 31.5% | 28.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 30.9% |
Game Analysis
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