Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | UNT -111 SMU -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +2 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -2.1 (+4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.8 (+11.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -1.6 (+0.4) | 125.0 (+9.0) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -1.5 (+3.5) | 125.0 (+9.0) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -1.2 (+3.2) | 125.6 (+8.4) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -1.6 (+3.6) | 123.4 (+10.6) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2024 | SMU 71 – 68 UNT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNT | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-4 | 14-3 |
| Away | 6-6 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-5 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 76.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.4 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 7.3 (#77) | 13.1 (#28) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.79 (#112) | 1.52 (#71) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.38 (#92) | 2.21 (#56) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#123) | 0.564 (#81) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNT | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 40.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 36.9% | 37.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.2% | 41.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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