Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Over |
| Money | SMU -275 UNT +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +3 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -7.9 (-4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.0 (+14.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -4.4 (-1.4) | 132.5 (+6.5) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -6.4 (-3.4) | 133.3 (+5.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -6.6 (-3.6) | 132.6 (+6.4) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -6.8 (-3.8) | 131.3 (+7.7) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 26, 2024 | UNT 68 – 66 SMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-3 | 11-4 |
| Away | 5-8 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 64.4 |
| Massey | 11.8 (#40) | 7.2 (#82) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.18 (#89) | 0.68 (#119) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.77 (#72) | 1.16 (#104) |
| RPI | 0.554 (#90) | 0.529 (#122) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 37.5% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.3% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.2% | 45.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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