Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | GONZ -500 SF +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +5 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -8.7 (-3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.7 (+2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -8.3 (-3.3) | 145.6 (+3.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -7.9 (-2.9) | 147.2 (+1.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -7.4 (-2.4) | 148.2 (+0.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -7.4 (-2.4) | 146.9 (+2.1) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | GONZ 80 – 59 SF |
| Jan 25, 2026 | GONZ 68 – 66 SF |
| Mar 11, 2025 | GONZ 85 – 76 SF |
| Mar 2, 2025 | GONZ 95 – 75 SF |
| Feb 14, 2025 | GONZ 88 – 77 SF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 11-5 |
| Home | 13-2 | 14-2 |
| Away | 8-2 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.4 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 66.8 |
| Massey | 14.3 (#19) | 9.2 (#57) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.64 (#62) | 1.20 (#84) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.31 (#51) | 1.49 (#87) |
| RPI | 0.572 (#71) | 0.542 (#108) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | SF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 49.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 41.1 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 35.1% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 75.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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