Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | GONZ -1600 SF +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +11 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -14.3 (-3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.4 (+10.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -12.2 (-1.2) | 150.2 (+14.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -12.3 (-1.3) | 150.1 (+14.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -12.3 (-1.3) | 148.5 (+16.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -12.9 (-1.9) | 151.1 (+13.9) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | GONZ 80 – 59 SF |
| Jan 25, 2026 | GONZ 68 – 66 SF |
| Mar 11, 2025 | GONZ 85 – 76 SF |
| Mar 2, 2025 | GONZ 95 – 75 SF |
| Mar 12, 2024 | GONZ 89 – 77 SF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-9 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 13-5 |
| Home | 13-2 | 17-2 |
| Away | 7-2 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 6-5 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.4 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 19.9 (#9) | 8.7 (#67) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.01 (#48) | 2.01 (#49) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.93 (#42) | 2.34 (#55) |
| RPI | 0.586 (#43) | 0.581 (#46) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | SF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.5% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 39.4 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 2.00 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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