Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | GONZ -500 SF +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +12 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -7.1 (+4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.5 (+17.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -8.3 (+3.7) | 143.9 (+22.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -9.1 (+2.9) | 147.2 (+18.8) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -7.6 (+4.4) | 146.0 (+20.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -6.8 (+5.2) | 146.5 (+19.5) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | GONZ 80 – 59 SF |
| Jan 25, 2026 | GONZ 68 – 66 SF |
| Mar 11, 2025 | GONZ 85 – 76 SF |
| Mar 2, 2025 | GONZ 95 – 75 SF |
| Feb 14, 2025 | GONZ 88 – 77 SF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 11-5 |
| Home | 13-2 | 14-2 |
| Away | 8-2 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.4 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 66.8 |
| Massey | 15.8 (#16) | 8.7 (#68) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.33 (#22) | 1.26 (#82) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.09 (#16) | 1.49 (#89) |
| RPI | 0.596 (#24) | 0.538 (#108) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | SF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.3% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.60 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.9% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 18.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 76.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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