Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | GONZ -1600 SF +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +9 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -12.1 (-3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.3 (+7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -8.5 (+0.5) | 150.9 (+10.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -8.0 (+1.0) | 150.1 (+10.9) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -8.7 (+0.3) | 150.8 (+10.2) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -8.2 (+0.8) | 152.2 (+8.8) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | GONZ 80 – 59 SF |
| Jan 25, 2026 | GONZ 68 – 66 SF |
| Mar 2, 2025 | GONZ 95 – 75 SF |
| Feb 14, 2025 | GONZ 88 – 77 SF |
| Mar 12, 2024 | GONZ 89 – 77 SF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-9 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 13-5 |
| Home | 13-2 | 17-2 |
| Away | 7-2 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 6-5 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.4 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 21.0 (#7) | 8.9 (#64) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.17 (#42) | 1.91 (#51) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.05 (#37) | 2.19 (#57) |
| RPI | 0.587 (#37) | 0.585 (#41) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | SF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.4% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 2.05 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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