Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | SF +950 GONZ -1650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +21 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | GONZ -17.2 (-3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.8 (-12.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -12.2 (-8.8) | 151.3 (-12.3) | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -12.4 (-8.6) | 152.0 (-13.0) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -13.4 (-7.6) | 149.4 (-10.4) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -12.1 (-8.9) | 150.2 (-11.2) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 25, 2026 | GONZ 68 – 66 SF |
| Mar 11, 2025 | GONZ 85 – 76 SF |
| Mar 2, 2025 | GONZ 95 – 75 SF |
| Feb 14, 2025 | GONZ 88 – 77 SF |
| Mar 12, 2024 | GONZ 89 – 77 SF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SF | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 31-4 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 16-2 |
| Home | 10-6 | 15-0 |
| Away | 4-7 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 84.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 2.9 (#124) | 23.1 (#7) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.41 (#129) | 4.01 (#8) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#119) | 5.07 (#6) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#152) | 0.629 (#18) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SF | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 51.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 41.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 56.6% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 36.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.5% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 76.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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