Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | SF +360 GONZ -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +20 | 170 | Lost |
| Massey | GONZ -11.7 (-8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.6 (+17.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -5.2 (-14.8) | 146.8 (+23.2) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -6.9 (-13.1) | 147.4 (+22.6) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -5.9 (-14.1) | 151.0 (+19.0) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -6.4 (-13.6) | 147.1 (+22.9) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | GONZ 80 – 59 SF |
| Jan 25, 2026 | GONZ 68 – 66 SF |
| Mar 11, 2025 | GONZ 85 – 76 SF |
| Feb 14, 2025 | GONZ 88 – 77 SF |
| Mar 12, 2024 | GONZ 89 – 77 SF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SF | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 26-9 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 14-4 |
| Home | 17-2 | 13-2 |
| Away | 5-5 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 6-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 86.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 9.1 (#62) | 20.8 (#7) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.01 (#47) | 2.10 (#41) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.27 (#55) | 2.98 (#36) |
| RPI | 0.589 (#37) | 0.587 (#40) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SF | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 50.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 2.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 13.5% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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