Let fury have the hour / Anger can be power. "Clampdown" - The Clash
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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34–16 on winners spread MAE 9.4 50 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
NC State @ Virginia +4.8 126.8 67% 53–59 ✓
Miami @ Notre Dame -4.9 138.0 33% 73–61 ✓
South Florida @ Temple -2.5 144.5 41% 75–69 ✓
Murray State @ Bradley +10.9 143.4 84% 63–71 ✓
High Point @ South Carolina Upstate -6.4 155.9 28% 78–67 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Longwood +7.6 140.5 76% 76–64 ✗
Winthrop @ Charleston Southern -7.5 144.8 25% 78–59 ✓
Maryland @ Iowa +7.8 149.1 76% 69–67 ✗
Army @ Boston University +6.9 117.3 74% 69–59 ✗
Holy Cross @ American University +12.6 143.1 87% 65–84 ✓
Fordham @ Rhode Island +3.2 153.1 62% 71–68 ✗
Davidson @ Saint Louis -1.1 147.6 46% 84–61 ✓
George Washington @ Richmond +10.8 150.9 84% 74–82 ✓
Lafayette @ Loyola Maryland -0.2 128.7 49% 70–44 ✓
Navy @ Bucknell +3.1 132.5 61% 63–71 ✓
Chattanooga @ Wofford +1.2 157.1 54% 79–65 ✗
Samford @ Furman -0.9 175.8 47% 68–78 ✗
Mercer @ The Citadel +4.8 130.6 67% 66–68 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Western Carolina +4.7 134.1 67% 85–82 ✗
Texas State @ Troy +9.5 139.8 81% 65–78 ✓
James Madison @ Old Dominion -10.9 157.2 16% 78–62 ✓
Georgia State @ Marshall +2.3 151.4 58% 68–77 ✓
Southern Miss @ Coastal Carolina -0.7 145.8 48% 79–63 ✓
North Alabama @ Kennesaw State +7.4 169.1 75% 90–84 ✗
Central Arkansas @ Queens University +9.2 161.0 80% 79–96 ✓
Auburn @ Alabama +5.7 167.9 70% 75–79 ✓
East Carolina @ Wichita State +5.8 143.2 70% 54–52 ✗
Jacksonville State @ Middle Tennessee -4.9 113.7 33% 67–75 ✗
Florida Atlantic @ Rice -13.0 154.6 12% 69–56 ✓
Tulane @ UTSA -8.1 181.5 23% 88–89 ✗
Indiana State @ UIC -10.4 149.1 17% 89–83 ✓
Valparaiso @ Southern Illinois +14.5 132.5 91% 69–75 ✓
Drake @ Missouri State -7.3 142.7 25% 80–83 ✗
Villanova @ St. John's +3.2 144.6 62% 50–70 ✓
Mississippi State @ Florida +3.7 154.6 63% 70–79 ✓
Illinois @ Northwestern -5.3 146.6 32% 91–96 ✗
Marquette @ DePaul -19.1 144.4 4% 86–73 ✓
Kansas State @ Iowa State +14.8 139.4 91% 67–78 ✓
Arkansas @ Ole Miss +6.9 152.2 74% 51–77 ✓
Utah @ Washington State -1.5 146.8 45% 57–79 ✗
Colorado State @ Nevada +1.0 144.1 53% 64–77 ✓
New Mexico @ San José State -10.2 154.9 18% 95–75 ✓
Colorado @ Washington +0.5 159.6 52% 98–81 ✗
Elon @ Campbell +2.8 140.6 60% 68–78 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Fairleigh Dickinson -3.2 152.8 39% 76–60 ✓
UAlbany @ Maine +4.3 146.5 65% 73–81 ✓
Monmouth @ Stony Brook +1.4 144.7 55% 65–72 ✓
Georgia Southern @ App State +20.7 140.7 97% 74–84 ✓
Vermont @ UMass Lowell +4.1 138.6 65% 72–65 ✗
North Florida @ Bellarmine -1.3 139.9 45% 71–63 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.