Betting Lines
| Spread | FUR -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 167.5 Under |
| Money | FUR -138 SAM +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FUR +10 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -2.0 (+12.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 176.1 (-30.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FUR -0.8 (+9.2) | 160.9 (-14.9) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -1.6 (+11.6) | 162.3 (-16.3) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -1.9 (+11.9) | 161.0 (-15.0) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -0.6 (+10.6) | 161.8 (-15.8) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | FUR 86 – 81 SAM |
| Jan 29, 2026 | FUR 78 – 73 SAM |
| Jan 15, 2026 | FUR 77 – 73 SAM |
| Mar 9, 2025 | FUR 95 – 78 SAM |
| Feb 20, 2025 | FUR 80 – 72 SAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FUR | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 29-6 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 15-3 |
| Home | 12-3 | 18-0 |
| Away | 3-10 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 84.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.7 | 74.9 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#142) | 7.4 (#75) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.07 (#173) | 2.32 (#26) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.04 (#168) | 2.52 (#37) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#171) | 0.581 (#55) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FUR | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 48.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 40.9% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 56.8% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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