Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | SAM -122 FUR +102 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FUR +5 | 167 | Lost |
| Massey | FUR -1.0 (-4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.7 (+21.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FUR -0.4 (-4.6) | 143.6 (+23.4) | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FUR -0.8 (-4.2) | 144.0 (+23.0) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FUR -0.3 (-4.7) | 142.0 (+25.0) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FUR -0.2 (-4.8) | 142.9 (+24.1) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | FUR 78 – 73 SAM |
| Jan 15, 2026 | FUR 77 – 73 SAM |
| Mar 9, 2025 | FUR 95 – 78 SAM |
| Feb 20, 2025 | FUR 80 – 72 SAM |
| Jan 29, 2025 | FUR 72 – 70 SAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-3 | 11-5 |
| Away | 6-9 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#214) | -2.1 (#196) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#213) | -0.37 (#211) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#219) | -0.51 (#212) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#160) | 0.510 (#159) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.56 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.1% | 13.4% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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