Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | SAM -290 FUR +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FUR +8 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | SAM -7.5 (-15.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.9 (+0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -6.3 (-14.3) | 148.6 (+3.4) | 77% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -7.5 (-15.5) | 149.5 (+2.5) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -6.2 (-14.2) | 148.4 (+3.6) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -6.3 (-14.3) | 148.6 (+3.4) | 76% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | FUR 86 – 81 SAM |
| Jan 29, 2026 | FUR 78 – 73 SAM |
| Jan 15, 2026 | FUR 77 – 73 SAM |
| Mar 9, 2025 | FUR 95 – 78 SAM |
| Jan 29, 2025 | FUR 72 – 70 SAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 11-7 |
| Home | 13-3 | 13-3 |
| Away | 9-7 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.5 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 71.1 |
| Massey | 4.2 (#104) | -0.1 (#164) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.89 (#97) | 0.54 (#124) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.90 (#105) | 0.30 (#149) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#81) | 0.538 (#106) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 66.1% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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