Betting Lines
| Spread | FUR -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | FUR -250 SAM +205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FUR +5 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | FUR -8.5 (-3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.0 (+3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FUR -8.9 (-3.9) | 144.7 (+6.3) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FUR -7.4 (-2.4) | 145.3 (+5.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FUR -7.2 (-2.2) | 143.0 (+8.0) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FUR -7.5 (-2.5) | 143.9 (+7.1) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | FUR 86 – 81 SAM |
| Jan 15, 2026 | FUR 77 – 73 SAM |
| Mar 9, 2025 | FUR 95 – 78 SAM |
| Feb 20, 2025 | FUR 80 – 72 SAM |
| Jan 29, 2025 | FUR 72 – 70 SAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FUR | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-5 | 11-3 |
| Away | 7-5 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 77.0 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#180) | -6.0 (#258) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.05 (#175) | -1.05 (#255) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#183) | -1.37 (#255) |
| RPI | 0.504 (#162) | 0.456 (#250) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FUR | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 12.6% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 12.9% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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