Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | FUR +120 SAM -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FUR +2 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -0.9 (+2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.1 (-11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FUR -0.5 (+1.5) | 146.4 (-4.4) | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -0.5 (+2.5) | 146.1 (-4.1) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FUR -0.1 (+1.9) | 147.3 (-5.3) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -0.4 (+2.4) | 147.6 (-5.6) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | FUR 86 – 81 SAM |
| Jan 29, 2026 | FUR 78 – 73 SAM |
| Jan 15, 2026 | FUR 77 – 73 SAM |
| Mar 9, 2025 | FUR 95 – 78 SAM |
| Feb 20, 2025 | FUR 80 – 72 SAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FUR | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 12-6 |
| Home | 13-3 | 13-3 |
| Away | 9-6 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 81.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 76.8 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#157) | 4.6 (#102) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.83 (#102) | 1.46 (#69) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.56 (#133) | 1.57 (#80) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#104) | 0.559 (#74) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FUR | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 56.4% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 65.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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