Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | SAM -165 FUR +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FUR +17 | 173 | Lost |
| Massey | SAM -2.6 (-19.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.8 (+19.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -0.8 (-17.8) | 147.3 (+25.7) | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -2.4 (-19.4) | 150.3 (+22.7) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -0.2 (-17.2) | 150.4 (+22.6) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -1.0 (-18.0) | 151.1 (+21.9) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | FUR 86 – 81 SAM |
| Jan 29, 2026 | FUR 78 – 73 SAM |
| Jan 15, 2026 | FUR 77 – 73 SAM |
| Feb 20, 2025 | FUR 80 – 72 SAM |
| Jan 29, 2025 | FUR 72 – 70 SAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 11-7 |
| Home | 13-3 | 13-3 |
| Away | 9-7 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.5 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 71.1 |
| Massey | 3.8 (#105) | 1.2 (#141) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#113) | 0.80 (#106) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#121) | 0.54 (#131) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#80) | 0.556 (#77) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 66.5% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.9% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.