Betting Lines
| Spread | FUR -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | SAM +105 FUR -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FUR +4 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | FUR -2.7 (-1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.3 (+2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FUR -1.7 (-2.3) | 143.6 (+6.4) | 41% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FUR -1.8 (-2.2) | 144.3 (+5.7) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FUR -2.2 (-1.8) | 141.5 (+8.5) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FUR -2.4 (-1.6) | 143.4 (+6.6) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | FUR 86 – 81 SAM |
| Jan 29, 2026 | FUR 78 – 73 SAM |
| Mar 9, 2025 | FUR 95 – 78 SAM |
| Feb 20, 2025 | FUR 80 – 72 SAM |
| Jan 29, 2025 | FUR 72 – 70 SAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-3 | 11-5 |
| Away | 6-9 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -6.3 (#258) | -0.1 (#169) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.84 (#246) | 0.33 (#145) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.21 (#249) | 0.12 (#162) |
| RPI | 0.455 (#257) | 0.531 (#111) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.51 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 13.1% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.2% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 16.5% |
Game Analysis
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