Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | NEV -213 CSU +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +13 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | NEV -0.8 (+12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.5 (-3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -2.7 (+10.3) | 140.2 (+0.8) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -1.4 (+11.6) | 141.7 (-0.7) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -1.2 (+11.8) | 141.4 (-0.4) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -2.0 (+11.0) | 140.5 (+0.5) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | NEV 75 – 62 CSU |
| Mar 14, 2025 | CSU 67 – 59 NEV |
| Feb 19, 2025 | CSU 79 – 71 NEV |
| Dec 21, 2024 | CSU 66 – 64 NEV |
| Mar 15, 2024 | CSU 85 – 78 NEV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEV | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 25-11 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 10-8 |
| Home | 15-2 | 15-2 |
| Away | 8-3 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 10.3 (#49) | 13.2 (#27) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.84 (#50) | 2.57 (#14) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.16 (#59) | 3.26 (#12) |
| RPI | 0.587 (#46) | 0.646 (#9) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEV | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 50.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 57.6% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 32.7% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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