Betting Lines
| Spread | USM -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | CCU +163 USM -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +16 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | USM -0.9 (-15.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.9 (-3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -2.9 (-13.1) | 143.6 (-1.6) | 36% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | USM -2.0 (-14.0) | 143.1 (-1.1) | 36% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | USM -3.2 (-12.8) | 140.9 (+1.1) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USM -2.8 (-13.2) | 141.2 (+0.8) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | CCU 85 – 67 USM |
| Mar 4, 2025 | USM 66 – 63 CCU |
| Feb 21, 2025 | CCU 87 – 78 USM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CCU | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 9-9 |
| Home | 7-11 | 11-3 |
| Away | 1-9 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.4 | 72.9 |
| Massey | -9.0 (#313) | -4.3 (#246) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.19 (#336) | 0.21 (#157) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.50 (#328) | -0.13 (#180) |
| RPI | 0.366 (#358) | 0.515 (#144) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CCU | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.6% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 66.5% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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