Betting Lines
| Spread | USM -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | USM -165 CCU +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +3 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | USM -1.9 (+1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.5 (-11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -1.3 (+1.7) | 138.9 (-9.9) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USM -1.6 (+1.4) | 138.0 (-9.0) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -0.6 (+2.4) | 139.3 (-10.3) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USM -1.8 (+1.2) | 137.7 (-8.7) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | CCU 85 – 67 USM |
| Feb 21, 2025 | CCU 87 – 78 USM |
| Jan 25, 2024 | USM 79 – 63 CCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USM | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 3-15 |
| Home | 9-6 | 6-8 |
| Away | 1-13 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -8.1 (#296) | -10.0 (#324) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.55 (#309) | -1.82 (#326) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.95 (#309) | -2.19 (#319) |
| RPI | 0.430 (#310) | 0.404 (#339) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USM | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 10.6% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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