Betting Lines
| Spread | CCU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | CCU -162 USM +136 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CCU +18 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | CCU -2.1 (+15.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.1 (+6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CCU -2.0 (+16.0) | 139.6 (+12.4) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CCU -1.7 (+16.3) | 142.8 (+9.2) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CCU -1.4 (+16.6) | 143.9 (+8.1) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CCU -1.6 (+16.4) | 141.0 (+11.0) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2025 | USM 66 – 63 CCU |
| Feb 21, 2025 | CCU 87 – 78 USM |
| Jan 25, 2024 | USM 79 – 63 CCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CCU | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 8-5 | 10-3 |
| Away | 10-7 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -5.5 (#251) | -4.4 (#237) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#193) | -0.53 (#222) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.68 (#217) | -0.80 (#223) |
| RPI | 0.499 (#182) | 0.497 (#187) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CCU | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 27.0% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 30.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.5% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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