Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | UPST +260 HPU -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UPST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +11 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | HPU -6.1 (-4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.2 (-11.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -6.9 (-4.1) | 150.3 (-5.3) | 24% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -7.0 (-4.0) | 147.9 (-2.9) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -6.8 (-4.2) | 151.7 (-6.7) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -6.4 (-4.6) | 152.0 (-7.0) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | HPU 95 – 70 UPST |
| Jan 18, 2026 | HPU 89 – 69 UPST |
| Feb 27, 2025 | HPU 88 – 66 UPST |
| Jan 23, 2025 | HPU 86 – 77 UPST |
| Feb 15, 2024 | UPST 86 – 81 HPU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UPST | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-20 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 13-3 |
| Home | 6-7 | 16-1 |
| Away | 4-12 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 82.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -7.3 (#293) | 2.6 (#130) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.45 (#301) | 1.16 (#89) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.03 (#313) | 1.71 (#79) |
| RPI | 0.431 (#291) | 0.545 (#104) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UPST | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 39.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 37.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 35.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 13.8% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 76.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.3% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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