Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | HPU -1200 UPST +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UPST +5 | 167 | Lost |
| Massey | HPU -14.0 (-19.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.8 (+12.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -11.7 (-16.7) | 150.2 (+16.8) | 87% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -10.6 (-15.6) | 151.4 (+15.6) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -12.3 (-17.3) | 152.7 (+14.3) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -11.8 (-16.8) | 151.9 (+15.1) | 85% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | HPU 95 – 70 UPST |
| Jan 18, 2026 | HPU 89 – 69 UPST |
| Feb 27, 2025 | HPU 88 – 66 UPST |
| Jan 23, 2025 | HPU 86 – 77 UPST |
| Jan 25, 2024 | HPU 78 – 67 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 13-3 | 5-11 |
| Home | 16-1 | 6-7 |
| Away | 7-5 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.1 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 3.6 (#116) | -7.0 (#286) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.18 (#91) | -1.35 (#298) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.52 (#87) | -1.69 (#298) |
| RPI | 0.555 (#88) | 0.434 (#297) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 36.6% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 36.7% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.9% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 32.7% |
Game Analysis
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