Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | HPU -2100 UPST +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +20 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | HPU -17.0 (+3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.1 (-2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -14.4 (+5.6) | 150.0 (+8.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -18.2 (+1.8) | 152.8 (+5.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -16.2 (+3.8) | 155.2 (+2.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -15.2 (+4.8) | 151.0 (+7.0) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | HPU 95 – 70 UPST |
| Feb 27, 2025 | HPU 88 – 66 UPST |
| Jan 23, 2025 | HPU 86 – 77 UPST |
| Feb 15, 2024 | UPST 86 – 81 HPU |
| Jan 25, 2024 | HPU 78 – 67 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-5 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 15-1 | 5-11 |
| Home | 17-1 | 10-5 |
| Away | 7-2 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.4 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.8 | 75.7 |
| Massey | 7.9 (#79) | -5.7 (#257) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#134) | -1.21 (#275) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#137) | -2.04 (#301) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#163) | 0.461 (#242) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.65 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.8% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 13.2% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 31.4% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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