Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | UPST +950 HPU -1650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UPST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +25 | 165 | Lost |
| Massey | HPU -11.4 (-13.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.7 (+7.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -12.2 (-12.8) | 151.1 (+13.9) | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -11.2 (-13.8) | 151.7 (+13.3) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -10.4 (-14.6) | 149.7 (+15.3) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -10.4 (-14.6) | 151.8 (+13.2) | 17% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 18, 2026 | HPU 89 – 69 UPST |
| Feb 27, 2025 | HPU 88 – 66 UPST |
| Jan 23, 2025 | HPU 86 – 77 UPST |
| Feb 15, 2024 | UPST 86 – 81 HPU |
| Jan 25, 2024 | HPU 78 – 67 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UPST | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 31-5 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 15-1 |
| Home | 10-5 | 17-1 |
| Away | 3-13 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 86.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.7 | 72.8 |
| Massey | -6.8 (#271) | 7.5 (#80) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.46 (#296) | 0.67 (#100) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.02 (#304) | 0.67 (#117) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#257) | 0.532 (#105) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UPST | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 12.6% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 32.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 22.8% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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