Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Over |
| Money | UPST +1200 HPU -3000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UPST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +9 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | HPU -13.8 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.5 (-0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -12.8 (+3.8) | 159.2 (+3.8) | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -13.3 (+4.3) | 157.2 (+5.8) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -14.3 (+5.3) | 154.9 (+8.1) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -12.5 (+3.5) | 159.5 (+3.5) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | HPU 95 – 70 UPST |
| Jan 18, 2026 | HPU 89 – 69 UPST |
| Feb 27, 2025 | HPU 88 – 66 UPST |
| Feb 15, 2024 | UPST 86 – 81 HPU |
| Jan 25, 2024 | HPU 78 – 67 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UPST | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-26 | 29-6 |
| Conference | 2-14 | 14-2 |
| Home | 4-10 | 16-1 |
| Away | 2-14 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 81.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 85.5 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -13.0 (#346) | 4.3 (#102) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.33 (#338) | 0.65 (#112) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.83 (#335) | 0.83 (#113) |
| RPI | 0.397 (#331) | 0.529 (#125) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UPST | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 27.3% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 32.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.4% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.7% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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