Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -20.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Under |
| Money | HPU -6000 UPST +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +22 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | HPU -22.0 (+0.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.3 (-10.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -18.0 (+4.0) | 160.5 (-6.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -19.3 (+2.7) | 159.4 (-5.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -21.4 (+0.6) | 160.9 (-6.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -19.5 (+2.5) | 163.0 (-9.0) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | HPU 95 – 70 UPST |
| Jan 18, 2026 | HPU 89 – 69 UPST |
| Jan 23, 2025 | HPU 86 – 77 UPST |
| Feb 15, 2024 | UPST 86 – 81 HPU |
| Jan 25, 2024 | HPU 78 – 67 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 6-26 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 2-14 |
| Home | 16-1 | 4-10 |
| Away | 7-3 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.2 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 85.5 |
| Massey | 6.2 (#88) | -12.6 (#341) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.26 (#77) | -2.34 (#343) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.49 (#80) | -2.69 (#337) |
| RPI | 0.568 (#57) | 0.399 (#344) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 30.3% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 56.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 29.9% |
Game Analysis
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