Betting Lines
| Spread | CIT -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | CIT -110 MER +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIT +2 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | CIT -5.4 (-3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.8 (+4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CIT -2.4 (-0.4) | 134.9 (-0.9) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIT -3.6 (-1.6) | 133.8 (+0.2) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CIT -3.6 (-1.6) | 134.5 (-0.5) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIT -3.9 (-1.9) | 135.3 (-1.3) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | MER 70 – 54 CIT |
| Jan 8, 2026 | MER 101 – 63 CIT |
| Feb 20, 2025 | MER 62 – 52 CIT |
| Jan 30, 2025 | MER 80 – 46 CIT |
| Mar 8, 2024 | MER 84 – 76 CIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIT | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 8-10 |
| Home | 7-7 | 10-6 |
| Away | 2-13 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#211) | -4.5 (#248) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.14 (#278) | -0.79 (#252) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.15 (#266) | -1.31 (#279) |
| RPI | 0.441 (#280) | 0.465 (#239) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIT | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.5% | 30.1% |
Game Analysis
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