Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | MER -1650 CIT +950 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +38 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | MER -20.4 (+17.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.7 (+13.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -14.0 (+24.0) | 144.8 (+19.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -14.7 (+23.3) | 147.7 (+16.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -14.5 (+23.5) | 143.6 (+20.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MER -14.9 (+23.1) | 143.9 (+20.1) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | MER 70 – 54 CIT |
| Feb 20, 2025 | MER 62 – 52 CIT |
| Jan 30, 2025 | MER 80 – 46 CIT |
| Mar 8, 2024 | MER 84 – 76 CIT |
| Feb 22, 2024 | MER 87 – 78 CIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 14-1 | 7-8 |
| Away | 5-11 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.1 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.8 | 78.9 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#150) | -15.4 (#352) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.13 (#165) | -4.37 (#363) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.13 (#163) | -5.85 (#363) |
| RPI | 0.527 (#122) | 0.354 (#361) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 18.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 58.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 13.2% |
| DRB% | 64.3% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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